[SMM Analysis] The nickel prices of MHP and high-grade nickel matte declined in sync this week, while the cobalt price of MHP continued to rise sharply.

This week, MHP market transactions were limited. Supply and demand side, spot availability was constrained on one hand, with sellers offering quotes but tradable volumes being scarce. On the other hand, due to the current high prices, nickel salt and refined nickel plants adopted a wait-and-see approach towards procurement, with some nickel salt smelters halting shipments and shifting to toll processing. Price-wise, influenced by cobalt intermediate product quotas in the DRC and rising prices of cobalt intermediate products and cobalt sulphate, the cobalt payables for MHP spot cargo increased. Under the dual impact of tight supply-demand and policies, nickel payables and cobalt payables remained high.

This week, high-grade nickel matte market trading was sluggish. Supply and demand side, although high-grade nickel matte served as a notable supplement to MHP, spot availability was limited. Price-wise, due to current high costs of ore and auxiliary materials, costs stayed elevated, and payables remained high.

Key auxiliary material sulphur side, prices continued to rise this week. Supply-side reductions were unlikely to improve in the short term, while demand-side phosphate fertiliser market saw continuous growth with new capacity gradually coming online, coupled with stocking demand from Indonesian MHP projects, intensifying the tight supply-demand situation for sulphur. However, recent excessive gains required market digestion. Overall prices were more likely to rise than fall, with further upside room expected.

Nickel prices side, despite positive macro factors such as the US government restart, the refined nickel surplus limited its full benefit from overall market optimism, leading to a MoM decline in nickel prices this week. Considering payables, nickel prices for MHP and high-grade nickel matte fell in sync this week, while MHP cobalt prices maintained a sharp upward trend.